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How Claudia Sheinbaum Will Be Different From AMLO

Mexico’s next president may prove less popular but “more competent” than her predecessor, the author writes.

MEXICO CITY — From the beginning of Mexico’s presidential campaign, Claudia Sheinbaum was frequently portrayed in the local and international media as a danger to democracy, an ineffective populist, and a puppet of her mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).

Now that the election is over, we know she won in a landslide victory. She is expected to secure a supermajority in the Lower House and fall just a few seats short of a supermajority in the Senate, something not seen in the history of Mexico’s electoral democracy.

The risk is democratic backsliding. Mexico became an electoral democracy in 1997 as part of the so-called third wave of democracies. The question is whether Mexico’s young democracy will sometime soon look like Hungary, India, or Poland—or continue its process of consolidation.

Sheinbaum’s commitment to democratic values is called into question because she openly campaigned for some of AMLO’s controversial reforms, such as the popular election of Supreme Court judges and electoral authorities, and because she used as her campaign slogan “continuity with change,” making people wonder what change entails.

Opposition pundits deem Sheinbaum a puppet. A figure without real political power that will be instructed by AMLO to use her well-developed technical and managerial capacities to erode Mexican institutions with unprecedented speed and efficiency.

However, Sheinbaum is not AMLO. During her tenure as mayor of Mexico City, she showed significant detachment from his blueprint. Unlike AMLO, she wore a mask during the COVID-19 pandemic and worked on clean energy initiatives such as replacing oil-fueled public transportation with electric buses and building one of Latin America’s largest solar parks. Sheinbaum did not militarize the local police or employ the army to build public infrastructure.

Sheinbaum is also more competent than AMLO. Under her supervision, Mexico City’s cash-transfer programs were better allocated to the poorest than the rest of the country. Sheinbaum’s flagship social program, a scholarship for public school children, complemented federal transfers. As a result, while at the national level AMLO’s cash transfers reached fewer bottom-10% households than the previous administration, in Mexico City, Sheinbaum’s cash transfers nearly doubled their reach among families at the same income level.

A fragile supermajority

Even if we were to assume that Sheinbaum’s secret goal is to erode Mexico’s democracy, her presidency would face conditions that would make democratic backsliding much less probable.

The most important one is that, to achieve a supermajority, Morena had to design a strategy to maximize seats per vote under Mexico’s proportional representation system. That meant Morena had to be very generous in distributing seats to its two coalition allies: the PT and the Green Party. Morena’s supermajority is fragile as it depends on the loyalty of its allies. The Green Party, which allied with Morena’s opposition until 2018, is known for frequently switching coalitions to serve its interests.

Negotiations may become even more difficult for Sheinbaum because her party’s discipline will likely worsen. AMLO had served as Morena’s leader and unifying force. In critical moments of potential fragmentation, such as during the presidential primaries, he intervened to establish the rules for dividing power and healing wounds.

Sheinbaum cannot follow suit, and there have already been a few cases of extreme indiscipline. In several states, including parts of Puebla, Mexico City, Yucatán, Chihuahua, Tlaxcala, Durango, Veracruz, and the state of Mexico, militants who disapproved of Morena’s choices of candidates protested, left the party, and even ran opposition campaigns. At the federal level, two of Sheinbaum’s rivals in the primary process created an internal split among Morena’s legislators, effectively peeling away about 18% of the party’s legislators.

Furthermore, rallying people to support autocratic reforms will be much more difficult for Sheinbaum as she lacks the popularity of AMLO. When AMLO took office, he had a 76% approval rating. Immediately before the election, polls put Sheinbaum’s approval at 67%, which would be lower than the honeymoon rates of previous Mexican presidents. Her popularity may also be more fragile, as research has shown that female leaders face stronger backlashes than male leaders. Furthermore, despite AMLO’s criticism, the popularity of potentially targeted institutions like the electoral authorities and the Supreme Court has increased in polls since 2018.

Finally, Sheinbaum will also face a crucial institutional constraint: the recall referendum approved by AMLO while in office. After three years in office, anybody collecting around 3 million signatures can demand a referendum vote to potentially remove Sheinbaum from office. It is conceivable, given the low turnout for past referendums, that as few as 20 million Mexican voters would be able to successfully remove her from Los Pinos.

Extreme inequality

All of this points to an often-overlooked aspect of Mexico’s democracy: its fate may be less tied to Sheinbaum’s personality or political power, and more to its economic features, namely extreme inequality. According to some measures, Mexico is the fourth most unequal nation in the world. In such a country, when a populist leader argues that the people should organize to confront its rent-seeking elite, he is not developing a communication strategy; he is saying the truth. As long as Mexico remains a country where a small portion captures most economic opportunities, demand for populism will persist.

Liberals’ obsession with maintaining procedural democracy by constraining the executive fails to recognize that the only effective way to prevent democratic backsliding is not by forcibly excluding the angry masses from decision-making or counterbalancing their power with autonomous institutions but by addressing and reducing the very sources of their anger.

Support for democracy is driven by delivering results to its people, as the work of Daron Acemoglu, a professor at MIT, has shown. Mexico’s democracy must provide good public services and opportunities for it to be safe. So far, the country has proven resilient. However, in the future, there will be no shortcuts. Mexicans need reasons to support their democracy.

Armed Gang Violence Forces Thousands To Evacuate Town In Mexico

Over 4,000 residents were forced to evacuate a Mexican town due to armed gang violence, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador confirmed Monday, ABC News reported.

Obrador confirmed that the government has established camps to aid approximately 4,200 displaced residents from the town of Tila in Chiapas, following violent attacks last week by armed groups. This incident marks one of the largest mass displacements in the region since 1997, according to ABC News.

Residents described being trapped in their homes for days as armed assailants shot at them and set buildings on fire, the outlet reported. The army and state police arrived and enabled these residents to evacuate, many carrying minimal possessions or just the clothes on their backs, according to ABC.

The Digna Ochoa Human Rights Center identified the perpetrators as the “Autonomos” or Autonomous Ones, a group with links to drug trafficking ABC News reported. The group has also been accused of extorting residents and setting up roadblocks in the area.

At least two individuals were killed in the gang violence, and 17 buildings were destroyed, state prosecutors said, according to ABC. Despite these reports, Obrador noted that the situation has somewhat stabilized and that food supplies are flowing to displacement camps, the outlet noted. He also expressed a desire to start negotiations with the parties involved to secure the displaced residents’ safe return.

This violent episode is part of a broader pattern of conflict in Chiapas, a region historically plagued by drug cartel battles, land disputes and political tensions. Chiapas, which borders Guatemala, is also a critical corridor for smuggling both drugs and migrants, according to ABC News.

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Mexico’s Leftists Won Big. Investors Are Worried.

The peso had its worst week since the pandemic as markets reacted to fears that the government would pass constitutional changes seen as dismantling democratic checks and balances.

A final count of votes released over the weekend suggests Mexico’s leftist governing party and its allies would capture large majorities in Congress, potentially enabling the coalition to pass sweeping changes to the Constitution.

The official tally from elections last week showed that the party, Morena, and its partners appeared on their way to clinching a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house of Congress.

In the Senate, it seemed that the coalition would fall short of a supermajority — but by a small number of seats, analysts said, meaning it would likely need to attract the support of only a few opposition legislators to alter the Constitution. Building those alliances “is relatively easy to achieve,” said the party’s president, Mario Delgado, in an interview.

“We are now a dominant force,” Mr. Delgado added, “by the decision of the people.”

The final makeup of the legislature is still unclear because a share of seats in the Mexican Congress are appointed via a system of proportional representation in August. Legal challenges could also affect how seats are allocated.

But Morena has come close enough to total dominance to prompt a strong reaction from a sector that the party can’t ignore: the financial markets.

In the volatile days following the election, investors’ alarm has been on full display, with Mexican stocks battered and the peso suffering its worst week since the pandemic.

The concern centered on the possibility that Morena would use its broad mandate to enact constitutional changes that detractors warn could gut existing checks on presidential authority, financial analysts said.

The proposals were first introduced by Andrés Manuel López Obrador and include plans to eliminate independent regulators and to appoint judges and election officials via popular vote, which critics warn could make them more susceptible to political pressure. Among other concerns, investors fear that upending the judiciary could make it less certain that they’ll get a fair hearing in disputes.

“The feeling of the market is that under the Morena party and with this plan on the table, a radical change could be coming,” said Janneth Quiroz Zamora, director of economic research at the brokerage Monex. “The biggest fear is about the possible elimination of checks on executive power.”

In what seemed to be an attempt to calm the market, the incoming president, Claudia Sheinbaum, a protégée of Mr. López Obrador, announced last Monday that the current finance minister, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, who is seen as a stabilizing force, would stay in the job.

“He is a great public servant who provides certainty of good financial and economic management,” she said.

Ms. Sheinbaum won the presidency with the largest share of votes in decades and Morena also claimed most of the governorships on offer.

Her initial comments encouraged investors that “the government was sensitive to their concerns,” said Blanca Heredia, a political analyst based in Mexico City. That was “mostly because of the speed of the reaction,” Ms. Heredia said, noting that the new president “needs and wants economic growth.”

But then on Thursday, the leader of Morena in the lower house of Congress, Ignacio Mier, appeared to announce that the party would seek to approve the constitutional changes in September, before Mr. López Obrador steps down and Ms. Sheinbaum takes over.

The peso fell again. Hours later, Mr. Mier walked back his statement in a radio appearance in which he suggested that any changes wouldn’t be rushed through.

Ms. Sheinbaum later told reporters the measures would be subject to broad dialogue. She also posted a photo of herself meeting with an executive from the investment firm BlackRock. “They are committed and enthusiastic about increasing investment projects in Mexico,” she said on social media.

Mr. Delgado, the party president, said that Mr. López Obrador and Ms. Sheinbaum would need to agree on how to move forward with the plans.

“These are reforms that will need to be discussed and their reach, their final version, will come about in the Congress, and the pace of their approval will be decided by the president,” he said, referring to Ms. Sheinbaum.

The upshot, analysts said, is that in a political system where one party has so much control, the market could emerge as a moderating force.

“I do think this adverse reaction from the market is going to cause a very thorough rethinking of what they are going to approve and how they are going to approve it in September,” said Joan Domene, a Mexico City-based senior economist for Latin America at Oxford Economics, an economic consultancy.

The stock exchange building in Mexico City. Investors feel that “radical changes could be coming,” one analyst said.Credit…Daniel Becerril/Reuters

Mr. López Obrador, though, seemed undeterred. At his regular news conference on Friday morning, the president reiterated his commitment to the changes and seemed to minimize the peso’s declines, saying, “justice is above the markets.”

The mixed messages showed, analysts said, that investors’ influence will depend on whether the people leading Morena — including Mr. López Obrador — actually listen to them.

“Markets are a straitjacket for politics,” Mr. Domene said. “But not for everyone equally.”

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Explosion in Acapulco’s main square injures 9

The explosion took place late afternoon Sunday, as families gathered in the square to watch a clown performance. (Cuartoscuro)

The Pacific coast resort city of Acapulco was rocked by an explosion on Sunday afternoon that injured at least nine people. Emergency personnel and security forces rushed to the scene to attend to the injured and collect evidence.

The incident took place in the Plaza Álvarez, the main square in old town Acapulco. Witnesses said they heard two detonations near the small fairgrounds set up opposite the cathedral.

Police and National Guard personnel revised their initial report of four casualties to nine, as they widened their search for victims.

A few hours after the explosion, local authorities issued a bulletin dismissing reports of a second incident at Acapulco’s Symphony of the Sea Amphitheater a mile to the west of Plaza Álvarez.

Authorities on Monday confirmed that the number of casualties was nine, but released little information about the status of the victims, including a baby whose condition was not disclosed. One of the wounded, a 23-year-old woman who had suffered first-degree burns on her lower back, was described as in stable condition.

The Guerrero Attorney General’s Office issued a press bulletin early Monday announcing that it had begun an investigation.

Emergency personnel load an injured person into an ambulance after the explosion in Acapulco’s central square. (Piko Sariñana/X)

The armed forces arrived to help secure the area and participate in the investigation. The Guerrero state government declared an emergency Sunday night as local, state and federal authorities coordinated the response to the explosion. The state government also sought to assure Acapulco residents and tourists in a statement on social media that it was doing everything in its power to guarantee security and resolve the situation.

As of Monday afternoon, the authorities had yet to reveal the cause of the explosion. According to the news site López-Dóriga Digital, local media speculated that the explosion was caused by a Molotov cocktail, echoing fears related to a wave of violence the resort city experienced in May.

The Plaza Álvarez, formerly the Plaza de Armas, sits in the Historic Center of Acapulco on the western end of the city, just off the main tourist strip. The Our Lady of Solitude Cathedral dominates the northern side of the plaza, which features five fountains and a band kiosk

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Mexico’s Sheinbaum to prioritize public internet access, adviser says

Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum is set to prioritize public internet access after taking office, an adviser said on Wednesday.

Jose Merino, an adviser to Sheinbaum on digital strategy, told a telecoms conference in Mexico City that the state must reach areas of the country that private telecoms companies do not cover, underscoring her intention to continue outgoing President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador’s unfinished project to bring internet to all Mexicans.

Sheinbaum won last Sunday’s election by securing over half of the vote, according to preliminary results, and is set to take office on Oct. 1.

Merino said a sustainable national telecoms policy could be rolled out to address how frequency bands are auctioned and Mexico’s lagging connectivity in the medium to long term as part of the new government’s agenda.

“Denying access for any reason to a person’s data and connectivity is denying them the ability to exercise a multitude of rights,” Merino said.

Mexico’s telecoms regulator, the IFT, was one of the institutions that Lopez Obrador had proposed eliminating through constitutional reform.

Sheinbaum has said she plans to continue Lopez Obrador’s initiatives. Industry watchers, however, are waiting to see if she will push forward with eliminating the IFT, and how she will manage regulation of the sector, which includes major companies like America Movil (AMXB.MX), opens new tab and Televisa (TLEVISACPO.MX), opens new tab.

“Making (the IFT) disappear is not seen as the best idea because we come from a time when it did not exist and we already know what a (government) secretariat is like, changing people all the time and then there is no accumulated knowledge,” Gabriel Szekely, chief executive of Mexico’s National Telecommunications Association (Anatel), told Reuters after Merino spoke.

Mexico’s Sheinbaum wins landslide to become country’s first woman president

Claudia Sheinbaum won a landslide victory to become Mexico’s first female president, inheriting the project of her mentor and outgoing leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador whose popularity among the poor helped drive her triumph.

Sheinbaum , a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, won the presidency with between 58.3% and 60.7% of the vote, according to a rapid sample count by Mexico’s electoral authority. That is set to be the highest vote percentage in Mexico’s democratic history.

The ruling coalition was also on track for a possible two-thirds super majority in both houses of Congress, which would allow the coalition to pass constitutional reforms without opposition support, according to the range of results given by the electoral authority.

“For the first time in the 200 years of the republic I will become the first woman president of Mexico,” Sheinbaum told supporters to loud cheers of “president, president.”

Victory for Sheinbaum is a major step for Mexico, a country known for its macho culture and home to the world’s second biggest Roman Catholic population, which for years pushed more traditional values and roles for women.

Sheinbaum is the first woman to win a general election in the United States, Mexico or Canada.

“I never imagined that one day I would vote for a woman,” said 87-year-old Edelmira Montiel, a Sheinbaum supporter in Mexico’s smallest state Tlaxcala.

“Before we couldn’t even vote, and when you could, it was to vote for the person your husband told you to vote for. Thank God that has changed and I get to live it,” Montiel added.

Sheinbaum has a complicated path ahead. She must balance promises to increase popular welfare policies while inheriting a hefty budget deficit and low economic growth.

After preliminary results were announced, she told supporters her government would be fiscally responsible and respect the autonomy of the central bank.

She has vowed to improve security but has given few details and the election, the most violent in Mexico’s modern history with 38 murdered candidates, has reinforced massive security problems. Many analysts say organized crime groups expanded and deepened their influence during Lopez Obrador’s term.

Sunday’s vote was also marred by the killing of two people at polling stations in Puebla state. More people have been killed – over 185,000 – during the mandate of Lopez Obrador than during any other administration in Mexico’s modern history, although the homicide rate has been inching down.

Item 1 of 28 Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate of the ruling MORENA party, reacts as she addresses her supporters after winning the election, in Mexico City, Mexico June 3. REUTERS/Raquel Cunha

[1/28]Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate of the ruling MORENA party, reacts as she addresses her supporters after winning the election, in Mexico City, Mexico June 3. REUTERS/Raquel Cunha Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

“Unless she commits to making a game-changing level of investment in improving policing and reducing impunity, Sheinbaum will likely struggle to achieve a significant improvement in overall levels of security,” said Nathaniel Parish Flannery, an independent Latin America political risk analyst.

The ruling MORENA party also won the Mexico City mayorship race , one of the country’s most important posts, according to preliminary results.

US RELATIONS

Among the new president’s challenges will be tense negotiations with the United States over the huge flows of US-bound migrants crossing Mexico and security cooperation over drug trafficking at a time when the US fentanyl epidemic rages.

Mexican officials expect these negotiations to be more difficult if the US presidency is won by Donald Trump in November. Trump has vowed to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico and said he would mobilize special forces to fight the cartels.

At home, the next president will be tasked with addressing electricity and water shortages and lending manufacturers to relocate as part of the nearshoring trend, in which companies move supply chains closer to their main markets.

Sheinbaum will also have to wrestle with what to do with Pemex, the state oil giant that has seen production decline for two decades and is drowning in debt.

“It cannot just be that there is an endless pit where you put public money in and the company is never profitable,” said Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs. “They have to rethink the business model of Pemex.”

Lopez Obrador doubled the minimum wage, reduced poverty and oversaw a strengthening peso and low levels of unemployment – successes that made him incredibly popular.

Sheinbaum has promised to expand welfare programs, but it will not be easy with Mexico on track for a large deficit this year and sluggish GDP growth of just 1.5% expected by the central bank in 2025.

Lopez Obrador has loomed over the campaign , seeking to turn the vote into a referendum on his political agenda. Sheinbaum has rejected opposition claims that she would be a “puppet” of Lopez Obrador, although she has pledged to continue many of his policies including those that have helped Mexico’s poorest.

In her victory speech, Sheinbaum thanked Lopez Obrador as “a unique person who has transformed our country for the better.”

But political analyst Viri Rios said she thought sexism was behind criticism that Sheinbaum was going to be a puppet of the outgoing leader.

“It’s unbelievable that people cannot believe she’s going to be making her own decisions, and I think that’s got a lot to do with the fact that she’s female,” she said.

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Mexico’s deadly heat dome is coming for the US

The heat dome has been linked to the deaths of at least 48 people in Mexico

Mexico hit with hailstorm amid heatwave

A prolonged and deadly heatwave that has killed at least 48 people in Mexico is headed by the US .

Temperatures could reach up to 111 degrees Fahrenheit (43C) in Florida , Texas and parts of Nevada , where an intense zone of high pressure, known as a heat dome, will fuel high temperatures over the next 10 days, meteorologists have warned.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center issued a warning that much of the Southwest will be impacted by the heat dome between June 5 and 11, with southern parts of both Texas and Florida already experiencing high temperatures.

The heat index, a measure of how hot it feels factoring in humidity, reached at least 115 degrees (46C) on Memorial Day at Houston Hobby Airport, demolishing the previous May record of 108 degrees (42C) from 1998.

The heat dome brought a similar heat index to the Florida Keys and south Florida ten days ago, with the index topping 105 degrees (40C). Following the brutal weather, meteorologists have predicted that Florida could see some relief from the heat dome because of a dip in the jet stream over the eastern United States in the coming days.

A heat dome occurs when hot ocean air becomes trapped in the atmosphere – much like placing a lid on a boiling pot.

The hot air expands across the atmosphere and creates a dome-like structure that prevents cooler air from circulating, blocks cloud coverage and rain and can increase the chance of wildfires.

“Basically we just get the sun pouring down unimpeded sunshine, baking the ground, and no real cloud cover or moisture to stave off our temperatures,” Gabriel A Vecchi, professor of Geosciences at Princeton University, told TIME.

The heat dome has already been breaking records in Mexico since early May, with many states in the country observing their highest temperatures on record.

Temperatures hit 94.5 degrees (34C) in Mexico City on Friday and Saturday – its highest temperature in 50 years of data keeping, according to the country’s National Meteorological Service. Meanwhile, temperatures soared to 118.4 degrees (48C) in Valle Nacional over the weekend, marking Oaxaca state’s hottest day.

Amid the heatwave, more than 80 per cent of the country is also enduring drought, with at least four dozen people dying from heat stroke and dehydration in Mexico over the past two months. The heat has also killed around 150 howler monkeys, which have been seen dropping dead from trees amid the high temperatures.

And there is little sign of the heat dome over Mexico dissipating, with researchers at the National Autonomous University of Mexico warning last week that the country “will experience the highest temperatures ever recorded” into early June.

The heat dome in Mexico has been partly fueled by the most recent El Nino weather phenomenon, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Mexico peso drops, stocks tumble on Morena supermajority concerns

Mexico’s peso tumbled as much as 4.1% against the dollar on Monday and the local stock market fell over 2% after the ruling party scored a surprisingly strong election showing and looking poised for a super-majority that markets fear might bring constitutional change and diminish checks and balances.

Claudia Sheinbaum won a landslide victory in Sunday’s presidential election, which was widely expected. But the scale of the gains for the ruling Morena party and its allies took markets by surprise, with some fearing this would pave the way for the group to pass constitutional reforms without opposition support.

The peso hit a fresh seven-week trough of 17.7207 to the dollar, a more than 4.1% drop, LSEG data showed. By 1354 GMT, the peso had trimmed some of its losses to trade at 17.56 to the dollar, down 3.2%.

“The question is whether the Morena party has done so well that it could command a super-majority and try to pursue market non-friendly policies of constitutional reform,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

The latest losses mean the currency has weakened over 3% since the start of the year, a sharp turnaround for the unit, which was, until recently, one of the few emerging markets currencies to have gained ground in 2024 against a strong dollar.

The benchmark stock market index (.MXX), opens new tab fell 2.3% in early trading, while the MSCI index (.MIMX00000PUS), opens new tab , priced in dollars, dropped 4.7%. The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF was down 5.7%. (EWW.P), opens new tab

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Mexican sovereign bonds were little changed, with the spread measured by JPMorgan’s EMBIGD index (.JPMEGDMEXR), opens new tab tightened by one basis point to 297 bps.

Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, won the presidency with between 58.3% and 60.7% of the vote, according to a rapid sample count by the electoral authority, in what is set to be the highest vote percentage in Mexico’s democracy history.

Mexico’s election: A victory for organized crime

Under Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency, organized crime will likely be calling the shots.

Supporters of Morena party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum celebrate at Zocalo Square in Mexico City, June 3, 2024 [Yuri Cortez/AFP]

On June 2, Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum as its first woman president. The 61-year-old scientist served as mayor of Mexico City from 2018 until 2023 and is the protégée of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), to whose Morena party she belongs and in whose shadow she will now govern.

In the largest election in Mexico’s history, Sheinbaum faced off against former senator Xóchitl Gálvez, head of a conservative coalition. In addition to the presidential race, Mexicans also voted for candidates contesting more than 20,700 federal and local positions countrywide.

In the run-up to the election, observers relentlessly cast the prospect of an impending female head of state in Mexico as a victory for women’s empowerment, although a glance at facts on the ground suggests the prematurity of any such celebration.

Back in 2019, Sheinbaum, the first female mayor of Mexico City, promised to eradicate violence against women. During her tenure, however, the femicide epidemic in the Mexican capital – and the rest of the country – continued to rage.

Mexico currently sees at least 10 women and girls killed on a daily basis, with tens of thousands of women missing. The vast majority of femicides go unprosecuted.

Of course, the emergence in femicides occurs within a general context of violence; In the first four and a half years of AMLO’s term, Mexico recorded 160,594 homicides, while the estimated number of missing people has now surpassed 111,000 – a figure AMLO has preferred to drastically lowball.

The outgoing president has also found it prudent to accuse people overly concerned with the search for the missing of suffering from “delirium of necrophilia.”

The violence extends to the political realm, too. More than two dozen candidates were assassinated ahead of the June 2 polls, and hundreds more dropped out of their races. In April, two mayoral contenders were found dead on a single day.

Some might go as far as to call it a “delirium of necrophilia.”

The pre-electoral spike in political killings is attributed primarily to cartels and other organized crime outfits conducting their own form of elections – if you will – by eliminating unfriendly candidates. After all, there is no time like the biggest election in Mexican history to show who will really be calling the shots in the coming years.

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Man in Mexico dies with first human case of H5N2 bird flu

A 59-year-old man in Mexico has died with a type of bird flu – H5N2 – never recorded in people before now.

There is no risk to the wider public, say authorities, and none of the man’s close contacts have caught the virus.

It is unclear how he got it, although there have been cases in some poultry farms in Mexico.

Infections like this can sometime pass from animals to humans.

The man had other underlying health issues that likely made him vulnerable.

He had been bedridden for weeks before getting sick with fever and shortness of breath from bird flu, according to officials.

There is no evidence that the virus could start spreading between people and cause an outbreak, they say.

The World Health Organization and other authorities monitor strains of flu, like this one, that could have the potential mutate and become a threat.

What is bird flu?

There are many types or strains of avian or bird flu.

As well as birds, some wild mammals – such as seals, otters, wild dogs and foxes – can catch them too.

Cases do occur in people from time to time and patients usually get better.

One type of bird flu, called H5N1, has been spreading for weeks among dairy cow herds in the US, with a small number of cases reported among humans.

The UK recently declared itself bird-flu-free after recording no new cases of H5N1, following outbreaks in poultry and other captive birds.

Responding to the news from Mexico, Prof Ian Brown, Avian Virology Group Lead, Pirbright Institute, said: “The prompt follow up in healthcare professionals and family members in contact with the infected patient provides reassurance at present this is an isolated case.”

Dr Ed Hutchinson from the University of Glasgow said it looked likely that the man’s infection was a spillover event – meaning he had probably caught it from an infected animal somehow.

“At the moment surveillance is taking place, including testing people who may have been exposed to the virus but fought off the infection to see if they show any signs of an immune response. If there are more human infections with this virus it would become of wider concern.”

June 2 is voting day…here are a few things you should be aware of.

On election day in Mexico, including June 2, there are several rules and regulations that everyone, including tourists, must follow to ensure the process runs smoothly and without any issues.

Here are some key rules:

Alcohol Ban (Ley Seca): There is usually a ban on the sale of alcohol (known as “Ley Seca”) starting from midnight on the day before the election until the polls close. This applies to all establishments, including bars, restaurants, and stores. Tourists should be aware that they won’t be able to purchase or consume alcohol in public places during this period.
Prohibition of Campaigning: All political campaigning and advertising are prohibited during the election day and the preceding day. This means no political rallies, distribution of promotional materials, or any form of political propaganda is allowed.
Voting Hours: Polling stations are open from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM. It’s important to respect these hours and the procedures in place at polling stations.
Restrictions on Public Gatherings: There may be restrictions on large public gatherings or events that could interfere with the electoral process. It is advisable to avoid crowded areas near polling stations.
Respect for Polling Stations: Tourists should respect the polling stations and avoid any activities that could be perceived as interference with the voting process. Taking photos inside polling stations or of voters is typically prohibited.
Traffic Restrictions: In some areas, there might be traffic restrictions or increased security around polling stations. Plan your travel accordingly to avoid disruptions.
Emergency Services: Be aware that emergency services may be on high alert, and there could be increased police presence to ensure a peaceful election process.

While tourists are not eligible to vote, respecting these rules helps maintain order and supports the democratic process in Mexico. Enjoy your stay and be mindful of these regulations to avoid any potential issues.

And If you are an employer?

If you have employees, such as housemaids and gardeners, in Mexico, there are specific considerations you should keep in mind on election day, June 2:

Time Off for Voting:Employers are required to allow their employees time off to vote. This means housemaids, gardeners, and any other employees should be given sufficient time during their working hours to go to their polling stations and cast their votes without any penalties or deductions in their pay.
Wages and Compensation:Employees must be paid their regular wages for the time they take off to vote. This time is considered paid leave for the purpose of voting.
Respect for the Election Process:Ensure that employees understand the importance of the election process and encourage them to exercise their right to vote. Provide any necessary support or information they might need regarding their voting rights and the location of their polling stations.
Adherence to Alcohol Ban (Ley Seca):If your employees live on your property or you provide them with meals, ensure compliance with the alcohol ban. This includes not serving or providing alcohol to your employees during the prohibition period.
Work Schedule Adjustments:Be flexible with work schedules on election day to accommodate voting times. This may mean adjusting their start or end times to ensure they have ample opportunity to vote.
Communication:Communicate clearly with your employees about their rights and the expectations for election day. Ensure they know they are entitled to time off to vote and reassure them that their jobs and wages will not be affected by taking this time.

By following these guidelines, you can support your employees’ participation in the democratic process while ensuring compliance with Mexican labour laws.

Research predicts worsening dengue spread in Mexico and Brazil

Both Brazil and Mexico may be affected by a much greater spread of dengue in the years to come, says a study by University of Toronto researchers.

Vinyas Harish, an MD-PhD student at the Temerty Faculty of Medicine, is the first author on a study published in Nature Communications that uses geospatial machine learning models to map out and predict the future spread of dengue in the two countries, until 2039.

The study was also authored by Kamran Khan, a professor in the Temerty Faculty of Medicine’s department of medicine, and Isaac Bogoch, an associate professor at Temerty Medicine’s department of medicine.

Researchers involved in the paper say they believe it’s the first time, to their knowledge, “that spatial models of disease spread have informed origins, pathways, and future projections of an emerging infectious disease.”

“COVID-19 has brought emerging infectious diseases to the forefront of public discussion. The pandemic is a reminder of the profound harm emerging infectious diseases have on health systems,” says Harish, who is also a postgraduate affiliate at the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence and a clinical clerk at Unity Health Toronto.

The World Health Organization has identified dengue as a viral infection spread to humans by mosquitoes. It affects 100 to 400 million people each year in tropical or sub-tropical climates.

While some people experience mild symptoms, for others, dengue can lead to much more serious outcomes, like hospitalization or death. No specific treatment for dengue exists, says the WHO, and there was a global spike in cases in 2023, which had led to world concern about the surging numbers.

The paper — led by Professor Oliver Brady of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine — involved researchers from Canada, the United States, Australia, England, Brazil, and Mexico.

Researchers based their predictions about future dengue spread on a modelling framework that uses data related to environmental factors in the region, as well as historical data on human population mobility.

Developing and validating these models meant looking at more than 8,000 municipalities in Brazil and Mexico over 25 years, and also integrating insights from historical outbreak records, climate change projections, and evolutionary history of viral genetic sequences.

Ultimately, the modelling created by the researchers predicts that from 2020 to 2039 there will be a “significant expansion” of dengue in the region. In Brazil, that means researchers expect the percentage of municipalities affected by dengue will increase from 76 per cent to 97 per cent. In Brazil, that figure is anticipated to increase from 55 per cent of municipalities, to 81 per cent.

“These predictions suggest a more extensive and rapid expansion of dengue in Mexico and Brazil than previously thought,” says the paper.

Researchers say they hope the findings of the paper help with understanding other emerging infectious diseases, and the best ways of combatting spread of dengue in future.

Mexico is about to experience its ‘highest temperatures ever recorded’ as death toll climbs

The extreme heat smothering much of Mexico has killed dozens of people across multiple state

The sun rises amid high temperatures in Mexico City on Thursday. Extreme heat in Mexico, Central America and parts of the U.S. South has left millions of people in sweltering temperatures, strained energy grids and resulted in iconic howler monkeys in Mexico dropping dead from trees. (Marco Ugarte/The Associated Press)

The extreme heat smothering much of Mexico has already killed dozens of people, but the hottest temperatures are yet to come, officials say.

“In the next 10 to 15 days, the country will experience the highest temperatures ever recorded,” researchers from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) said in a statement earlier this week. They called the heat wave “unprecedented.”

According to the Weather Channel, by early next week, temperatures in Veracruz are expected to soar to 37 C, Tabasco will be 40 C and Mexicali will reach temperatures of 40.5 C.

Temperatures in the capital, Mexico City, could reach a record 35 C in the next two weeks, said Jorge Zavala, director of UNAM’s Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change.

Most of the metropolitan area’s 21 million residents — accustomed to more temperate weather — lack air conditioning. Earlier this month, the capital was one of at least 10 cities in Mexico that registered their hottest day on record.

A boy dives into the sea on a hot spring day in Veracruz, Mexico, on Tuesday, amid a nationwide drought and heat waves that have sent temperatures soaring across much of the country. (Yahir Ceballos/Reuters)

Mexico has been reeling from a high-pressure weather phenomenon known as a “heat dome,” which has trapped hot air over much of the country, creating record-breaking temperatures that have surpassed 45 C in some places.

Heat-related causes killed 22 people between May 12 and 21, according to preliminary figures shared by Mexico’s health ministry. The 10-day period overlapped with the second and third heat waves out of five forecast for March to July by the country’s top weather agencies. The third heat wave is ongoing.

The new deaths bring the toll from the extreme temperatures to 48 since the hot season began on March 17, mostly due to heat stroke and some to dehydration. At the same point in Mexico’s hot seasons of 2022 and 2023, the health ministry had reported just two and three heat-related deaths, respectively.

Health ministry data also shows hundreds more people have survived heat stroke, sunburn, dehydration and other heat-related conditions.

Sweltering heat has exacerbated a nationwide drought and strained Mexico’s power grid, with monkeys dropping dead from trees due to suspected dehydration.

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How Mexico’s president won over the working class

Like many elderly Mexicans, Eleazar Flores still works in his 70s. But the town butcher in Contla, Tlaxcala, said one thing had changed in recent years: a government pension that gave him a little more money to help out his family. He thanks one person for it: President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

“He’s the best . . . he’s helping those who have the least,” Flores said in his shop in the textile-making town whose streets are lined with decorative tissue paper. Flores is one of some 25mn people in Mexico who now receive benefits from a social programme, according to government figures.

The cash transfers have been a centrepiece of the president’s political project. López Obrador, 70, began his life in politics as a protest leader in his home state of Tabasco before becoming mayor of Mexico City in 2000. He then spent a decade campaigning around the country, losing two presidential votes but building a base among the working class, which helped him to win a landslide victory across demographics in 2018.

As he prepares to hand over power following elections next week, he remains broadly popular, with approval ratings in the mid-60s — despite stagnant growth, some of the region’s worst excess mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic and record numbers of murders. The president, known as “Amlo” for his initials, has retained fierce loyalty among poorer Mexicans who have long resented what they see as an out-of-touch political class tainted by corruption, but do not view the president as part of it.

López Obrador refused the president’s jet and mansion and says he does not have a credit card. The president, who is limited to a single, six-year term in office under Mexico’s constitution, barely travels abroad and is known for riding in a white Volkswagen Jetta and eating in modest snack bars and cafés. Mexico’s smallest state after the capital, Tlaxcala has large swaths of farmland and some factories, indigenous communities and high levels of poverty. The president won here in all three elections he contested, including almost three-quarters of votes in 2018, the second-highest after his home state.

“He’s a simple, friendly guy, he comes here for the typical food like huazontles”, an indigenous plant sometimes called “Aztec broccoli”, said Bonifacio Herrera, a 59-year-old waiter. He showed off a photo of the leader’s recent visit to the restaurant where he works.

“He likes being with the people,” Herrera said. The government social programmes — targeting the elderly, some farmers and young people — are crucial to López Obrador’s popularity. Social spending is up 30 per cent in real terms since he took office, and is skewed heavily to cash transfers, which are more than three times higher, according to public policy think-tank IMCO. Broader coverage under López Obrador compared with his predecessor means that more people benefit, but the poorest receive relatively less than before.

López Obrador also oversaw a more than doubling of Mexico’s paltry daily minimum wage to 250 pesos ($15), with little negative economic fallout. That helped to bring millions of Mexicans out of moderate poverty: the rate fell to 36 per cent in 2022, from 42 per cent when he took office. Extreme poverty rose slightly, however. López Obrador’s critics see a polarising figure seeking to restore a hegemonic party and undermine democracy.

Urban centres such as Mexico City are divided, with some who thought he was a decent mayor arguing that he has since taken a more radical, intolerant turn. Middle- and upper-class voters are concerned that López Obrador is weakening democracy, with hundreds of thousands marching in defence of institutions such as the Supreme Court and electoral authority in recent months. López Obrador’s base sees it differently.

“There is more democracy now because people participate more,” Flores said. Central to López Obrador’s power is the “mañanera”, an hours-long morning news conference held every weekday. It dominates the airwaves in a country where swaths of the media rely on government advertising. Friendly journalists often pose fawning questions. “You can’t explain what’s happening today in Mexico, nor [López Obrador’s] popularity nor voting preferences, without the mañanera,” said Roy Campos, president of polling group Mitofsky. “At the end of the day, [people] want a president who confronts the powerful and defends the poor, and that’s the narrative he presents every day.”

Like with other populist leaders with a gift for communication, López Obrador has coined phrases that have entered the local lexicon. He likes to condemn the “conservative, bourgeois media”, and when confronted with unflattering statistics says he has “different data”. Critical commentators call him the “Teflon” president, who explains his own failures in terms of obstacles placed in his way by “elites”.

Polls show that security is the top concern for voters in this election, with more homicides and missing people recorded in López Obrador’s term than any other president in Mexico’s history. His supporters agree he has not fixed the problem, but believe he wants to and that the task is too difficult — or that others are responsible for the increase in bloodshed, such as local officials and the judiciary.

“Ms Piña, the judge, lets criminals out, what can the president do?” said Germán Rojas, who runs a cleaning supplies store in Tlaxcala, referring to the supreme court president Norma Piña, who was vilified by López Obrador in his conferences after justices struck down laws passed by his party. López Obrador’s protégé Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner for the next presidency, has promised broad continuity of his policies, and polls suggest she could win a similar proportion of votes.

Two-thirds of those who receive his social programmes plan to vote for Sheinbaum, while almost half of those who do not will vote for opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, according to an April poll by El Financiero newspaper. Many voters take a negative view of opposition parties, particularly the PRI, which is associated with decades of one-party rule and corruption, a narrative López Obrador fuels in his conferences. The PRI forms part of the coalition led by Gálvez. “The PRI sold the country,” said Doroteo Xelhuantzi, an artisan who makes blankets in Tlaxcala.

“The roads were sold to the Canadians and the oil dished out to the Americans.” Recommended Enrique Krauze Mexican democracy hangs in the balance The June election, which is also for congress and tens of thousands of local posts, has become a referendum on López Obrador’s political project, even though the man himself is not on the ballot for the first time in more than two decades. Though she has vowed to continue his project, Sheinbaum will have to contend with a large fiscal deficit, and the former academic lacks her mentor’s natural communication style.

The president has said he will retire to his ranch, but many of his supporters say they wished the president could run again. Of Sheinbaum and other national leaders of Amlo’s Morena party, Flores the butcher said: “They’ll keep López Obrador’s movement going for now, but in the future — who knows.”

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Mexican government says the arm of a 19th century mummy came off after mishandling by museum staff

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico’s federal archaeology agency on Monday accused the conservative-governed city of Guanajuato of mistreating one of the country’s famous mummified 19th century bodies.

FILE – Mummies are displayed in the Mummy Museum in Guanajuato, Mexico, Saturday, Nov. 1, 2008. In Mexico, the federal archaeology agency accused the conservative government of Guanajuato state on Monday, May 27, 2024, of mistreating one of the country’s famous mummified 19th century bodies. (AP Photo/Daniel Jayo, File)

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico’s federal archaeology agency on Monday accused the conservative-governed city of Guanajuato of mistreating one of the country’s famous mummified 19th century bodies.

The National Institute of Anthropology and History, INAH, said that during recent renovations at the museum where the mummified bodies are on permanent display, the arm of one of the mummies, well, came off.

One might think the complaint is all about the dignified treatment of corpses buried around the early 1800s and dug up starting in the 1860s, because their families could no longer pay burial fees.

But in fact, the mummies have been on a somewhat grisly display in glass cases in a museum in Guanajuato, the capital of the state of the same name, and toted around to tourism fairs for decades. Some were exhibited in the United States in 2009.

What appears to be at the root of the latest dispute is a turf battle between the INAH, which believes it has jurisdiction over the mummies because it says they are “national patrimony,” and Guanajuato, which considers them a tourist attraction. The state and city are governed by the conservative National Action Party, which the Morena party – which holds power at the federal level – considers its arch enemy.

On Monday, the institute said it would demand an accounting of what permits and procedures were followed during the museum renovations.

“These events confirm that the way the museum’s collection was moved is not the correct one, and that far from applying proper corrective and conservation strategies, the actions carried out resulted in damages, not only to this body,” the institute wrote in a statement.

It did not say what, if any, other bits of mummies had fallen off.

“It appears that this situation is related to a lack of knowledge about proper protocols and the lack of training of the personnel in charge of carrying out these tasks,” it continued.

The Guanajuato city government did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The preserved corpses were unintentionally mummified when they were buried in crypts in a dry, mineral-rich soil environment in the mining state of Guanajuato. Some still have hair, leathery skin and their original clothing.

The institute appeared to be miffed because personnel in Guanajuato, not the institute’s own staff, is in charge of the approximately 100 mummies. In part because they were mostly dug up before the institute was founded in 1939, they remain under local control, something that has rankled federal officials in the past.

In 2023, experts from the institute complained that a traveling display of mummies could pose a health risk to the public, because one of the mummies appeared to have fungal growths.

It is not the first time that the extremity of a long-dead person becomes a national political issue.

In 1989, the Mexican government weathered a wave of criticism after it removed the arm of revolutionary Gen. Álvaro Obregón – severed in battle in 1915 – after being displayed in a jar of formaldehyde in a marble monument for a half-century. Visitors said it had become ‘unsightly,’ and so the arm was incinerated and buried.

In 1838, Antonio López de Santa Anna, who served as president of Mexico 11 times, lost his leg in battle, and had it buried with honors. By 1844, an angry crowd that accused him of treason dragged the leg through the streets of Mexico City and apparently destroyed it.

Dead monkeys are dropping from Mexico’s trees in brutal heat wave

A volunteer carries monkeys that died amid drought and high temperatures in Buena Vista, Comalcalco, Mexico, May 18, 2024.

Threatened howler monkeys have been dropping dead from trees in Mexico’s southeastern tropical forests in recent weeks amid a nationwide drought and heat waves that have sent temperatures soaring across much of the country.

In the state of Tabasco, where temperatures are forecast this week to surpass 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit), local media have reported up to 85 deaths, while local authorities have confirmed the trend without providing a death toll.In a statement over the weekend, Tabasco’s Civil Protection agency attributed the monkeys’ deaths to dehydration.

A source from the agency told Reuters on Monday that monkeys have been confirmed dead in three municipalities of the state.In a forest outside Camalcalco, Tabasco, volunteers collected the corpses of mantled howler monkeys that died from high temperatures, before placing buckets of water and fruit to try to stave off more deaths.

The mantled howler monkey is classified as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List.

A Civil Protection worker pours lime over the bodies of monkeys in Buena Vista, Comalcalco, Mexico on May 18, 2024. Luis Manuel Lopez/Reuters“It is because the heat is so strong. I’ve been visiting the states for a long time and I have never felt it as much as now,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who comes from Tabasco, said on Monday when asked about the monkey deaths.

“So, yes, we have to care for the animals and yes we are going to do it,” he said in his regular news conference.Later on Monday, Mexico’s environment ministry said in a statement that it was coordinating efforts to address the monkeys’ deaths, which it attributed to several possible reasons, including “heat stroke, dehydration, malnutrition or the spraying of crops with toxic agro-chemicals.

”The country has been grappling with soaring and deadly temperatures for weeks. Mexico’s health ministry reported a preliminary count of 26 people who have died from heat-related causes between the start of Mexico’s heat season on March 17 and May 11.Extreme heat is being driven by human-caused climate change, in combination with El Niño, a natural climate pattern which affects global weather.

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