Mexico has seen an uptick in arrivals from Canada as the country’s tourists continue to forgo U.S. visits amid tensions, not to mention a boycott that seems to endure, since President Donald Trump returned to office.
According to recently published data from Canada’s national statistical agency, return trips to the U.S. in January totaled 1.6 million in January, a 24 percent drop compared to a year prior.
Meanwhile, figures from Mexico’s civil aviation agency and Anáhuac University’s Center for Advanced Research in Sustainable Tourism, cited by Mexico News Daily, indicate that trips to the country have moved into this space. For the first time, the Cancún-Toronto corridor ranked as the busiest international flight into Mexico, with travel from Toronto to the Mexican Caribbean surging 26 percent year-over-year in 2025.
Why It Matters
Tensions between the U.S. and Canada have remained at fever pitch since early last year, sparked by both the tariffs placed on Canadian exports to the U.S. as well as President Donald Trump’s repeated reference to the country as a potential “51st state.” Following the announcement of the tariffs, outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called for citizens to “buy Canadian” in response and reconsider visiting the U.S.
Evidence continues to emerge that avoidance of the U.S. has taken a heavy toll on the travel sector. Travel figures—from Canada as well as other nations—have dropped sharply, and experts have warned that the resulting drop in tourism revenue could be a significant economic drain.
What To Know
Of the 10 air routes that boasted the most international traffic to the Mexican Caribbean in 2025, two Canadian flights saw passenger surges. that includes the aforementioned Toronto-Cancún connection as well as the Montreal-Cancún route, which surged 24 percent in 2025 compared to the previous year. In addition, six connecting with the U.S. showed downturns.
According to Statistics Canada, the 24 percent decline in Canadian visits to the U.S. in January was made up of 27 percent and 18 percent drops in automobile and air travel trips, respectively.
And while the agency did not speculate on the potential reasons behind the decline—beyond noting that its onset coincided with the beginning of the “trade conflict” with Canada’s southern neighbor—survey data reveals consistent themes about why Canadians may be abstaining from their regular U.S. visits.
A recently published YouGov poll commissioned by Flight Centre Canada found that 62 percent of Canadians say they are less inclined to visit the U.S. than in previous years, with the current “political or cultural climate” (57 percent) cited as the key factor influencing their decision.
The survey, based on responses from 1,064 Canadian travelers and fielded in November, also found that they are increasingly opting for visits to Europe, Mexico and Asia as alternatives, with 37 percent saying domestic trips were top of their travel wishlist for 2026.
Forbes estimates the impact of absent Canadian visitors at $4.5 billion for 2025, and the U.S. Travel Association projected that the wider drop in international tourism spending had resulted in a $5.7 billion hit to the economy last year.
What People Are Saying
Sara Ranghi, marketing director for Meliá Hotels International, told the CBC in December: “I do think that there is a Trump effect, but I don’t think it’s only a Trump effect…Mexico is an attractive possibility for Canadians…and we see that reflected in the numbers.”
Chris Lynes, managing director of Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, quoted by Forbes: “Over the past year, we’ve seen a redistribution of Canadian travel spending. While U.S. travel has softened, outbound travel to other international destinations and interest in domestic trips has strengthened. If sustained, this could permanently reshape where Canadian travel dollars flow.”
Alan Bradshaw, a professor of marketing at Royal Holloway, University of London, told Newsweek in December: “As we move into the second year of Trump’s presidency, we can expect to see a continued decimation of tourist visits to USA.”
What Happens Next
Canadian travel companies appear to be adapting to what is expected to be an ongoing abstention from U.S. vacations. According to the aviation data provider OAG, Canadian carriers have cut their U.S.-bound capacity by nearly 10 percent for the first quarter of 2026, or 450,000 seats.
Meanwhile, Air Canada this week announced a major increase in scheduled summer flights to Mexico, boosting seat capacity by 18 percent year-over-year while introducing expanded routes to Guadalajara, Cancún, Mexico City, Monterrey and Puerto Vallarta.