For the month of May, Mexico ranked first for U.S. exports, the latest data shows. It was the third … More
Mexico ranked first for U.S. exports for three of the first five months of 2025, a first, as the southern neighbor inched closer to being the top U.S. trade partner for imports, exports and total trade on an annual basis.
Not since 2006 has one country ranked first for exports, imports and total trade on an annual basis.
Until October of 2023, Mexico had never ranked first for U.S. exports in a single month. It then ranked first for two months in 2024. Now, it has ranked first three times in just the first five months of 2025, according to my review of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data available.
As far back as 1992, Canada had ranked first every other month. That’s as far back as the U.S. Census Bureau merchandise trade data goes, so my guess would be that Canada’s streak extended much further.
If Mexico were to rank first for U.S. exports for all of 2025 and repeat as the top source of U.S. imports, it would be the only country other than Canada to have ever done so. Canada did so from 1992 to 2006. Currently, Mexico ranks first for imports and total trade.
For Mexico, the overall rise as a U.S. trade partner is marked by two significant events.
- The extension of the automotive supply chain integration between Canada and the United States to include Mexico when the North American Free Trade Agreement became law in 1992.
- President Trump’s trade war with China, begun in 2018, which, according to Census Bureau data, is shifting imports to Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and, to a lesser extent Mexico. (It’s suspected that China is skirting the tariffs by transshipping through these and other countries.)
With the passage of NAFTA, U.S. trade with Mexico accelerated. By 1999, Mexico had surpassed Japan to rank as the nation’s No. 2-ranked trade partner, behind Canada, a position it would hold until 2006.
Five years prior to that, China had gained entry to the World Trade Organization. In 2006, it supplanted Mexico to rank second among all U.S. trade partners on the strength of its imports into the United States. (It became second for imports within two years of entry into the WTO, in 2003.)